Cruise Industry Sees 'Encouraging Momentum'
byDori Saltzman/The cruise industry is gaining momentum heading into 2023. Photo: Shutterstock.com
在过去的一个月中,邮轮业在三个“积极的里程碑”中看到了三个“积极的里程碑”,这表明该行业的势头令人鼓舞。
“From conversations with senior executives at very large travel agencies that specialize in cruises and from examining ‘big data’ on future bookings and pricing, we observed three positive ‘milestones’ for over the past month amongst overall encouraging trends,” wrote C. Patrick Scholes, managing director, lodging and leisure equity research for Truist Securities, in an email briefing.
Truist Securities is a capital market and investment banking firm. Scholes oversees research that covers the lodging and cruise industries.
价格上涨
According to Scholes, the fourth quarter of 2022 will be the first for the industry in which pricing is “likely” to be up vs. 2019 levels. Currently, pricing is tracking up mid-single-digits compared to the same quarter in 2019.
“期待2023年,除非有不可预见的情况,否则我们希望定价将继续加速与2019年的可比水平。”
此外,斯科尔斯说,他预计,随着航行日期的接近远远远小于今年大部分时间的“崩溃与燃烧”的价格,这会发生的价格滑倒。
Booking Pace Is Accelerating
The booking pace for the current quarter and into the first quarter of 2023 is also up. Perhaps more importantly, bookings are up without a corresponding drop in pricing, the first time, he wrote, that that has been observed this year.
“While booking growth rates have moderated from August and early September’s post-vax & testing removal’s ‘explosion in bookings’ (+30% vs. 2019), booking pace has remained elevated into early November at up around low-double-digits vs. comparable 2019.”
At the same time, cancellations and rebookings, which had remained an issue through early August, remain “significantly” below 2019 levels. Cancellations are down approximately 30% over the past eight weeks vs. the comparable eight weeks in 2019.
Media Coverage of COVID Outbreaks Is Down
尽管在过去一个月中,尽管本月澳大利亚雄伟的公主在澳大利亚的巨大公主上,但他们并没有吸引全球媒体的大规模报道,但“自从Covid最初出现以来也是第一次。”
“Subsequently, from our latest checks and conversations we feel even more encouraged… about the direction the industry is heading as cruise lines are finally starting to participate in their fair-share of the travel recovery,” he wrote.
Luxury Shows Strongest Signs of Recovery
Scholes added that the luxury segment of the cruise industry continues to show the strongest signs of recovery, adding that the mass market segment continues to underperform.
“We continue to see the greatest degree of sales and pricing strength with the luxury lines as over the past 10 weeks we observed sales and pricing on bookings made for luxury sailings during that period for all future departures up approx. 30-35% and up approx. low-teens, respectively, vs. the comparable 10 weeks in 2019. By comparison, equivalent sales and pricing for the mass-market lines was up mid-teens and up low-single digits, respectively.
Cruise a Better Value than Land
Scholes also attributes “strong demand” in the cruise sector to the “comparative value proposition of a cruise vacation vs. a land-based one.”
Room rates continue to skyrocket and service levels “are arguably substandard for the rates one is paying.”
Despite pricing gains by the cruise industry, Caribbean cruise prices remain at record low levels, Scholes wrote, making cruises an appealing alternative to land vacations.
他补充说:“关于明年我们在经济衰退的情况下,对巡航的需求的影响,我们认为巡航的比较价值主张将更好地隔离巡航线与陆基假期。”
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