What Is the Future of COVID-19 and Related Mandates?
byDori Saltzman/
Society is inching its way back to normal, said Frank Del Rio, president and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, during a virtual fireside chat with Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the FDA and current chairman of NCL’s SailSAFE Global Health & Wellness Council.
“The world today is in a much different, and dare I say, a better place as far as the pandemic is concerned compared to where we were back during the January peak,” he added. “The prevalence of COVID and the Omicron variant has significantly decreased across the globe and there has been a discernable shift in the psyche of how we are living our daily lives amidst the virus.”
In response to the changes,Norwegian Cruise Line dropped masking requirementsand, starting March 1, began accepting children under 12 onboard its ships regardless of vaccination status.
How much more will change for the cruising public is still unclear but Dr. Gottlieb had some predictions to share.
Downward Trending, Fewer Mandates
The prevalence of COVID-19 continues to come down across the country and Gottlieb expects that downward trend to continue.
“现在我们在19例/ 100000人,per day,” Dr. Gottlieb said. “By the end of this month, we’ll probably be closer to 10 cases per 100,000 people per day. And I think that’s going to feel pretty normal around most parts of the country. You’re going to see people going back into restaurants, back into congregant settings.”
恢复正常的一部分将是各种授权的更多戒断,从孩子们不再需要在学校里戴口罩开始,该国大多数人已经看到了。
“We’re seeing a rapid change in policy in respect to governors and others lifting things like mask requirements in schools and pubic settings and I think that’s going to continue. You’re going to see a rapid acceleration in withdrawing a lot of measures that we had in place to try and deal with the epidemic peaks.”
在他的预测中,戈特利布说,随着我们进入春季和夏季,我们将看到更广泛的限制。
“您将看到在从欧洲进入美国之前接受测试的要求。您将看到掩盖公共交通工具的要求。”
他说,取而代之的是,我们可能会看到授权被用作处理流行高峰的临时工具,例如在冬季,在一个病毒传播的城市中。
至于CDC的公共交通面具授权,该授权将于3月中旬到期,Gottlieb表示,他希望CDC将其延长几周。
“I think they’re going to wait until the whole country is green. Right now about 70% of the country is at the low-prevalence range and I think it’s probably going to be the end of April before we see the whole country at that low prevalence range.”
Gottlieb also believes we’ll begin to see quarantine requirements dropped in the U.S.
“You’re seeing authorities dial back the requirements for quarantine and isolation,” he said, referring to the UK, which moved away from mandates, instead asking people to act responsibly if they’re sick.
“我认为这将变成类似流感的东西,期望您被诊断出您待在家里,直到感觉好起来并避免感染其他人。但这不是公共卫生条例所施加的。”
No New Variants of Concern, but Seasonal Evolution
In terms of the virus’ trajectory, Gottlieb doesn’t believe a new variant of concern is likely, though he admits there’s always a possibility.
“一切皆有可能,但是为什么我认为这变得不太可能是因为我们在这一点上具有太多的免疫力。我们已经接种疫苗。我们已经感染了Omicron,并且已经看到了这种病毒可以做的非常广泛的范围。最终,该病毒将减慢其突变能力。It’s going to slow down its ability to find ways to evade our immune system… it becomes less and less likely that something could come along that would race through the population and pierce that big, tall wall of immunity that we have and create another big wave of infection.”
Gottlieb也不认为Omicron子变体BA2可能会引起新的感染浪潮,尽管他预测它最终将最终成为美国的主要压力,至少有一段时间。
“Omicron will continue to evolve and we’ll probably have to update our vaccines over time like we do for flu… but that this will evolve into a more seasonal virus,” he said.
Like with the flu, Gottlieb said he expects a quiet spring and summer as far as COVID-19 is concerned, but that it will re-emerge in the fall and winter.
“A lot of people are likely to get a booster going into the fall to take them through this fall and winter and then we’ll see where we are after that,” he added.
总体而言,由于我们所有人都获得了较高的免疫力以及更容易获得的治疗剂,因此该病毒对社会的影响也会下降。
Will Cruise Ships Stop Requiring Vaccinations?
德尔里奥(Del Rio)代表许多巡洋舰和旅行顾问发表讲话,他何时认为巡航线可以放弃登机船的疫苗接种要求。戈特利布说,他不希望最早在明年春天之前对要求的任何更改。
“这很可能是在这个秋天和冬季必须达到的要求。疾病预防控制中心将希望看到这种疾病的流行病学是什么是“正常”状态。我们没有处于正常状态,我们一直处于大流行状态。我们有连续的感染浪潮。描述地方性阶段的最佳方法是,当这变成更季节性的病毒时,在春季和夏季,您看不到呼吸道病原体的传播。它变成了秋季和冬季病原体……我们希望今年能够第一次瞥见这一病原体……在我们与Covid一起经历了另一个秋天和冬季之后,看看我们是否真的处于地方性阶段。”
Additionally, Gottlieb said whether cruise lines continue to require vaccinations may depend on the vaccines themselves.
“疫苗是一个工具,阻止人们getting very sick or does the vaccine once again become a tool that can actually prevent spread in a congregant space? If the vaccines get reformulated and all of a sudden they’re 90% protective against any infection and against transmission, that becomes a valuable tool for protecting a congregant setting. If the vaccine ultimately is a tool that prevents you from getting very sick, that becomes something that is more of a personal choice people are making to try and protect themselves rather than using it to prevent themselves from spreading the virus.”