After Years of Strong Growth, Travel Sales May Be Slowing
by理查德·德·安布罗西奥(Richard D’Ambrosio)/
Vacation travel spending will be flat this year, with the number of leisure trips expected to decline in 2018, a trend that could continue through much of 2019, as well.
据领先的旅行研究和营销公司MMGY Global称,平均旅客打算在未来12个月内花费4,278美元,而过去12个月中花费了4,281美元。2016年,调查的受访者预测支出为4,723美元。
The number of trips taken also may decline, MMGY said in their just-released Portrait of American Travelers (POAT) annual survey. About 30 percent of the survey’s respondents indicated an intention to take fewer trips this year than last, while 21 percent said they would take more vacations. This 9-point negative variance in vacation intentions during the next 12 months is the first time the variance has been negative in the 12 years the question has been asked.
同时,假期支出数据表明,根据POAT的说法,2016年的八年高点持续下降趋势,比去年同期5%。thyear, and one of the most widely respected, long-term looks at the habits of leisure travelers.
Mature travelers told MMGY their vacation spend would drop 4 percent over the next 12 months, while Gen Xers say they are budgeting for about 3 percent less. Baby Boomers' vacation spend will be flat, they said. A continuing bright spot is the spend of Millennial vacationers, expected to be up 4 percent this year, to $3,976 for their households.
Steve Cohen, senior vice president, insights and research, MMGY Global, said that while there are signals of a slowdown after several years of robust growth, it was not time to panic. “We’re starting to see indications of a slowdown. Perhaps things are going in a negative way,” Cohen said, but given the small percentage drop in actual spend, and the survey’s margin of error, it may be too early to tell.
In an interview with Travel Market Report, Cohen said there were not clear outside forces for the change in spending plans. Higher energy and transportation costs, or higher unemployment might squeeze discretionary spending on things like vacations, but the economy continues to do well, he noted.
科恩说:“我们真的没有任何特定的将放缓归因于速度。”他将第二季度的旅行意愿描述为“令人难以置信的强大”,但第三季度和第四季度的2018年将比去年下降。
MMGY全球调查是第一个预测放缓的调查之一。美国旅行协会(USTA)的最新旅行趋势指数(2018年4月)预测,截至2018年10月,国内旅行期限为2.4%,“在消费者支出和商业投资方面的持续实力支持下。”
In April, Adam Sacks, president of Oxford’s Tourism Economics, which produces the USTA index, noted that “headwinds remain, but economic indicators support an upbeat outlook for businesses and consumers, while healthy global demand bodes well for international inbound travel.”
In other significant results, the percentage of consumers using a travel agent declined in 2017, to 14 percent, the survey said. In the 2017 MMGY survey, the percentage of travelers who had booked with a professional advisor in the past 12 months stood at 18 percent, slightly off from the 19 percent reported in 2016, a high-water mark for the survey.
科恩说:“这是我们第一次没有看到过去几年的百分比增加。”