随着航空公司面临不断上升的成本,机票可能会上升
经过芭芭拉·彼得森/
Major airlines reported third quarter profits for 2017, but while virtually all carriers were in the black, the financial outlook for the industry is more challenging than it was earlier this year, analysts say.
In short: get ready for a round of fare hikes, as airlines seek to pass along rising operating costs to customers.
最近几周,美国,三角洲,西南和曼联都报告了最近几个季度的丰厚收益,但也筹集了一些危险信号。虽然承运人在没有严重损害其底线的情况下风化了飓风Irma和Maria的影响,但在一轮劳动合同后,他们面临着更高的成本,这为飞行员和其他雇员群体带来了薪水。
例如,美国人告诉分析师,它预计2017年最后一个季度的成本会大大增加,尽管明年应该会放松。与此同时,西南航空公司(Southwest)在前景上看涨,首席执行官加里·凯利(Gary Kelly)告诉分析师,尽管有许多挑战,“这是一个非常强大的季度,第四季度看起来更好。”
Both of the Texas-based carriers narrowly beat Wall Street’s profit forecast for the quarter.
The price of jet fuel, the airlines’ biggest expense after labor, is also going up, but more efficient aircraft in carriers’ fleets should lessen the impact. And airlines are making significant investments to upgrade their product; purchasing new planes and refurbishing airport terminals, such as Delta Air Lines’ $4 billion upgrade of its digs at New York’s aging LaGuardia Airport.
该行业仍然具有很高的竞争力
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析师拉吉夫·拉尔瓦尼(Rajeev Lalwani)表示,这些因素的综合影响将使航空公司的成本在2018年提高2%,不包括燃料。航空公司的票价可能会增加,尤其是在竞争较少的市场中。但总的来说,美国经济学家约翰·海姆利希(John Heimlich)表示,今年的航空票价平均比去年一年低约10美元,这表明该行业仍然具有很高的竞争力。
当然,像曼联这样的主要网络运营商的成本比JetBlue等小型竞争对手更高。但是近年来,他们已经夸大了传统的智慧,并通过辅助服务等辅助服务削减了费用,并提高了收入。Ideaworks咨询公司的最新数据表明,2016年,美国,三角洲和曼联的三大遗产线(American,Delta和United)共同支付了超过160亿美元的辅助费用。
不过,行业官员说,而巨大carriers that emerged from a round of mergers in the past decade may benefit from their large size, that is not enough to ensure profits in what has always been a tough industry. “The reality is that legacy carriers still have very high costs, and consolidation didn’t really improve the cost structure,” Spirit Chief Executive Bob Fornaro said in a quarterly earnings call. “It improved the networks, but the costs are going higher.”
当然,诸如Spirit和Frontier之类的预算航空公司是点菜方法的冠军,但即使以低成本,他们也面临着类似的挑战。Spirit的飞行员要求在已经拖延两年的合同谈判中更高的薪水。
Individual carriers are also facing additional expenses stemming from their mergers. United, for example, expects technology costs to rise next year as it finally integrates its IT systems with Continental’s. And Alaska is on track to absorb Virgin America into its system, ultimately retiring the latter’s brand.