2022年的后半部分对于机构和顾问来说是明亮的
经过多里·萨尔茨曼(Dori Saltzman)/总体而言,尤其是旅游顾问的未来看起来足够光明,没有一个没有好的阴影的人都可能想投资一对。经过六个月的大部分持续增长,主持人和特许经营高管期望在今年剩余的时间内和2023年期望更多相同。
这些只是旅行市场报告与五个主持人和特许经营高管进行六个月的签约时,讨论的话题中的一些讨论要点beplay客服上半年如何去以及下半年的预期。
(Also see新人才的涌入,专注于教育作为2022年趋势)
在这篇文章中,我们查看了今年余下的时间。
与 - 或超越 - 2019年
“我们预计我们的22年结束将使我们成为创纪录的一年。我们正在超越2019年的数字。” Nest总裁Kathryn Mazza-Burney说。
Dream Travel Holdings的首席运营官黛比·菲奥里诺(Debbie Fiorino)是Dream Travel Holdings,Dream Vacations的母公司告诉TMR。“For the first time since February of 2020, we’re starting to see the number of cruise departures surpass 2019, which was our best year ever… Then to land vacations, in 2021 the division had its best year ever in bookings and in 2022 we’re on pace to exceed those numbers by a significantly large margin.”
Michelle Fee, founder and CEO of Cruise Planners, echoed Mazza-Burney and Fiorino. “Looking at the second half of the year, our forecast remains positive… If you call our agents, the phones are ringing off the hook. They are so busy they can’t keep up with it.”
“We are very encouraged about this bull market that we’re going through right now continuing for quite a long period into the future,” Jeff Anderson, co-CEO of Certares, told TMR. “There’s way more rationale for why vacation is so important than there was pre-pandemic.”
Nexion is also anticipating that business will continue to grow for the second half of the year and into 2023, said Jackie Friedman, Nexion Travel Group president.
实际上,没有任何高管TMR交谈的人期望在2023年放慢脚步。
When Might Demand Peak?
“We’re already looking at our ’23 futures and I think ’23 is going to be off the chart,” Fee said. “I think the problem in ’23 is going to be finding space.”
NEST’s Mazza-Burney said much the same. “We see our ’23 bookings are coming in extremely strong, in all segments of the business.”
When asked when the “revenge travel” and “pent-up demand” trend might peak, executives agreed it won’t be for a while.
“在'09之后,当我们参加经济衰退时,我们在10和11中看到了一些最好的时光,因为人们发现旅行不再是不错的东西。这是他们生活的一部分,”菲奥里诺说。
And while Anderson said the economy and COVID-19 could possibly impact the timing of the peak, he’s not overly worried.
“I think that the general trend is people want experiences more than things,” he said. “They spent on things over the last two years and now that they can actually get out, we see this trend continuing at least for another year or two. Nobody got younger in the last two years and nobody’s bucket list got shorter. The bucket stayed as big or bigger and now they have less time to do it.”
柔软?
The only soft spot some of the executives we spoke to said they’re aware of – but not worried about – is in the contemporary cruise segment.
“Our contemporary cruises have softened a bit,” said NEST’s Mazza-Burney.
Certares’ Anderson agreed. “I think the contemporary lines do have a more challenging back half of the year.”
高管指出,相关法规是该细分市场柔软度的主要原因之一。
费费说:“有几个障碍。”“您必须测试的第一名才能保持船上,您需要接受疫苗接种……这是一个不能巡航的重要人数,当代人需要更多的人来填补船只。”
Anderson echoed Fee. “There’s challenges there that the rest of the world is moving on from and so it is a little bit difficult for somebody to go back into an environment that they’re all now trying to escape from.”
But while Anderson told TMR he does agree “the contemporary part of cruising is softer than any other segment in cruising,” he added, “We don’t necessarily see it as weak.”
费用还指出,预订通常很慢。
“This time of year, purchases typically slow down from those higher bookings months, but we’ve already set Q3 and Q4 up and people are traveling.”
Dream Vacations isn’t seeing a softening, Fiorino said. But advisors are seeing the booking window shorten. “There’s more room for growth but we’re not seeing it softening…. The number of cruises that we sell within 90 days, 120 days, our percentages are much higher right now than they’ve ever been.”
Friedman echoed Fiorino and Anderson, “It may be slightly soft, but I’m not concerned with what I’m seeing at this point,” she said.
Both Mazza-Burney and Friedman added that the cruise lines are doing their part, offering a variety of promotions, including air promotions intended to help with higher airfares in the market.
“The cruise lines have gotten extremely aggressive,” Mazza-Burney said. “Cruise lines have come out with amazing promotions and incentives to entice the consumer to travel.”
可能的逆风
尽管主持人和特许经营高管TMR交谈并不过分担心未来,但他们确实引用了该行业面临的一些可能的逆风。
“I think there’s a few things,” said Mazza-Burney. “The stock market’s not doing well right now. Look at what’s still going on over in Ukraine, which takes out a whole segment of Europe that people are not traveling to.”
弗里德曼补充说:“机票正在上升。”“我认为,在取消测试时,最后一分钟前往欧洲的旅行可能会遇到一点贴纸。”
菲奥里诺说:“汽油价格高昂,通货膨胀率上升,衰退迫在眉睫,具体取决于您与谁交谈。”但是像其他高管一样,她不太担心。“我仍然认为,对于那些没有旅行的人来说,今年将会经历压抑的需求,以及人们受到压力并希望离开并享受生活的需求。”
她补充说,从历史上看,旅游业一直抵抗经济困难。“经济总是会颠簸的东西,但基于历史,旅行是人们仍然花钱的。我们认为这并不是巨大的逆风。这是坎bump的,但不是真正的逆风。”
Anderson also cited the war in Ukraine and the economy, but said his biggest worry continues to be COVID-19.
“We still don’t know what’s going to happen with COVID. It’s an unknown. And unknown regulation challenges… what happens if a country shuts down again?... Something else might happen again, so we’ve got a little bit of padding that we put in [into their budget] to accommodate for another wave of COVID if that happens.”